Pragmatism Over Ideology: A Path Forward for India
In an ideologically divided world, it’s better to be ideologically inclined towards policies rather than politics or political parties. I write as to why.
Politicians might be one of those people who generally don’t have their skin in the game and Indian political system makes it somewhat work that way. For example, in politics you are supposed to work for the good of the people but, if you fail, it should be the norm that you won’t win elections anymore.
But, politicians keep on winning elections even after decimating the economy term-after-term on the basis of “ideology” or in some cases, caste and this happens across party lines.
So, the question is, who gains from ideology, politicians or general public? It is rarely the latter. Here is one example, let’s say, you had to choose a Member of Parliament (MP) just for the sake of it or maybe because you didn’t have any other option or you didn’t want to use NOTA, an (MP) is entitled to pension for the rest of their life even after serving just one term (5 years) in office.
But, the ‘Agniveer’ soldiers are not entitled to gratuity or pensionary benefits even after serving in the army for four years. How does it make sense that an MP after serving for just one term of five years is entitled to pensionary benefits but, a soldier is not? Though Agniveers are entitled to about 5.85 Lakh as part of ‘Sevanidhi package’ from government but, why not pensions?
If we compare a politician and a soldier, who do you think has more to lose when they fail? Who has more of their ‘skin in the game’?
Some might argue, ‘We give pension to MPs so that they can serve the country well.’ But the thing is, are they serving the country or themselves well? There are possibly hundreds of data points that I can use to convey my argument here, but, I need only one to prove it, according to Association for Democratic Research (ADR) about 59 percent of donations that national political parties received in 2022-23 are from ‘unknown sources’.
Will the government accept this same reasoning when individuals don’t state their source of incomes while filing for income tax returns next year? I highly doubt that. The internet is full of tales of “tax terrorism” by the state machinery. While Reserve Bank of India (RBI) comes up with new rules and regulations that make it hard for ‘normal’ Indians to trade with the world while the state gives out slogans such as ‘Make in India’, ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ or ‘self-reliant India’.
Why being policy-driven helps?
Simple— It’s better for the collective.
As they say, “Devil lies in the detail” but, before we jump right into the details, hold your horses and just think for a moment, how do you imagine India of 2050? Is it a tech utopia? Is it a service based economy or a manufacturing giant? What about the demographic mix of the country? Is it still young? Are migrants from north still finding jobs in south or something changed?
When the history is judging us, will it care what our ideology was or what we did in spite of that? I think, the next 15-25 years will be much more important than all the previous years of Indian history. We are at the cusp of greatness, achievable only if we keep our differences aside and work for a common future.
When we are looking at ‘technologies’ that changed the world, few things come to mind: fire, wheels, ability of humans to harness electricity, internet and the coming wave of Artificial Intelligence and related technologies. Artificial intelligence is the greatest force multiplier in the history of human civilisation. The usage of technologies prior to AI was comparatively limited affecting few aspects of life but, AI has the potential to revolutionise almost every industry in existence and many more that are yet to even exist. Be it transport, energy, education, agriculture, warfare, healthcare, you name it and AI, either already is or increasingly will influence different aspects of any industry you can think of.
So, when looking at the future, we should be asking our governments, “What are we doing in fields of AI?” As India approaches 100 years of independence, we must ask for policies that are in line with making India a hub manufacturing of upcoming services and technologies.
What changes in the next 25 years?
The next 20-25 years will see significant changes in the Indian economy, I have tried to highlight few of the changes that I think will be the most prominent ones in the minds of people in a few years. These are diverse yet interconnected set of issues that will impact each other.
Demographic Changes
According to the United Nation’s “medium variant” projections India’s population will plateau around 2050, it might take ten more or less years than expected but, the ultimate reality is, it will happen. This is how the progression of economies and population plays out (in majority of the cases). We are seeing this with China, South Korea, Japan, Italy and even United States. According to Demographic Transition Theory, as nations grow ‘rich’ and the education level (literacy) rises and the rate of couple having number of kid drops (known as Total Fertility Rate or TFR). TFR of 2.1 is necessary to replace the dying population but, many states in India are already falling behind which will eventually lead to lower number of workforce participation in that state.
In India, there are only five states that have TFR of more than 2.1. These are, Bihar (3.0), Meghalaya (2.9), Uttar Pradesh (2.4), Jharkhand (2.3), and Manipur (2.2). Which means, if the TFR of Southern states don’t improve going forward, these five states will be providing the workforce required in southern states. You might say, that the population of southern states is still increasing, so, why so much pessimism? The problem is “demographic momentum”, this occurs because a large number of young people in the population is entering reproductive age. So, the population continues to grow for sometime but, it eventually plateaus and then declines.
Economic Shifts
As discussed above, the TFR and the political environment in the South warrants economic pragmatism over fringe ideological battles. And if I put it bluntly there are maybe two ways this can proceed:
Investments continue in south India as they are now (About 60 percent1of FDI goes to south India) But, their dependence on skilled and unskilled labourers from northern states will continue to grow—Creating political differences2.
Or, States in the North especially Bihar and other Northeastern states start attracting FDIs but, they will need central government support to do so—They don’t have compatible infrastructure to establish large-scale industrial zones. Neither do these states have enough connectivity with other parts of the country.
There have been announcements and budget allocations but, the actual development of projects have been plagued by delays and cancellations3. In the next 15-20 years, India will have to come up with a plan of action that allows for states such as Bihar and all of North-East to contribute meaningfully to India’s GDP. Geopolitically and geoeconomically thinking, India’s production capacity should not be concentrated in one part of the country as India needs to promote diversification of manufacturing and service (more on this later) based economy. A person shouldn’t be forced to migrate to another state thousands of kilometres away just so that their family back home can survive. It is right of every human to find a job suitable in their own state. Decision to move shouldn’t be forced upon them, it should be a happy choice that they make.
Cultural Erosion
There is another aspect of economic concentration that largely go unnoticed and is under-discussed—where we see that villages are getting deserted as majority of the population slowly shifts to cities mainly in search of employment opportunities. This by itself doesn’t promulgate cultural erosion but other associated factors like, reduced cultural exchanges, reinforcing cultural differences, marginalisation, erosion of traditional practices, alienation and disconnection leads to erosion. This is a well documented phenomenon in rural areas of Japan, the term for it is “Akiya”.
These factors also lead to demographic shifts as reduced socialisation leads to delay in marriages which invariably leads to geriatric pregnancy, restricting the number of kids a family can have.
This also impacts the sex-ratio of the country and India already has been going through a sex-ratio problem. The numbers are getting normal in the rural areas. But, according to National Family Health Survey (NFHS), in Indian urban areas, the sex ratio is 985 females per 1000 males. As the above discussed issues come together, this will create second-order, third-order problems. Think, marriages, kids, jobs, then the cycle continues.
How can AI affect the future?
In the next 15 years we will hear the word ‘Artificial Intelligence’ more than we have heard it till now. AI has the potential to transform the way we interact with the society. It will most probably rewrite the role we humans play in society as well. So, the question to ask is, what can be possible impacts of AI and what to do about it?
So, we’ll see one by one…
Ideological
Remember when we heard about ChatGPT and how it was unintentionally echoing social biases—racial, gender, political, etc? That is still possible and with the amount of personal data at the behest of these AI companies, and the prior knowledge will exacerbate these issues as these ‘engines’ will have availability of every minute information related an individual and the ability to manipulate the populous. Imagine Cambridge Analytica but, much more efficient and targeted.
Remember Las Vegas Cybertruck bombing? Matthew Livelsberger (a former U.S. Army Green Beret) utilised generative AI tools including ChatGPT to plan an explosion. Various extremist groups such as Islamic State and Al-Qaeda have been using AI-generated images and videos to produce propaganda materials. In June 2022, an AI model named GPT-4Chan was developed by fine-tuning GPT-J with dataset from 4Chan boards, known for hateful and extremist content and the model produced text that was offensive and aligned with extremist ideologies—denying Holocaust, opposing vaccines, and promoting conspiracy theories.
These are just few examples of how people’s ideologies being used in an ulterior way to create social distrust and disturb harmony—Imagine this but, on your face—Literally, with the help of VR or AR glasses.
Economic
The AI systems of tomorrow will impact economies around the world. But, we hear and see what countries like China and the US is doing in the field of AI. But, we don’t really know what India has been doing in the field of AI.
Let’s figure out why: So, in the West, research with regard to AI has been going on since 1956 and breakthrough development came from a start-up named “Deepmind” which formally started AI research in 2010. And made headline in 2016 by defeating Lee Sedol (4-1) in the popular game called Go. And China came to know about the significance of AI when in 2017 AlphaGo defeated Ke Jie by 3-0, a game that happened over three days. One interesting tidbit is that the telecast of game was restricted in China. But, this made it clear for Chinese government that the next frontier technology is AI and they went all-in. In 2017, China unveiled its plan to be a leader in AI related technologies by 2030.
Here’s a paragraph from the book “The Coming Wave” highlighting the significance of the moment:
“Seoul wasn’t the end of AlphaGo. A year later, in May 2017, we took part in a second tournament, this time against the number-one-ranker player in the world: Ke Jie. This matchup took place in Wuzhen, China, at the Future of Go Summit. Our reception in Wuzhen was strikingly different. Live-streaming the matched was barred in the People’s Republic. No mention of Google was allowed. The environment was stricter, more controlled; the narrative closely curated by the authorities. No more media circus. The Subtext was clear: this wasn’t just a game anymore. AlphaGo won again, but it did so amid an unmistakably tense atmosphere.
Something had changed. If Seoul offered a hint, Wezhen brought it home. As the dust settled, it became clear AlphaGO was part of a much bigger story than one trophy, system or company; it was that of great powers engaging in a new and dangerous game of technological competition— and a series of overwhelmingly powerful and interlocking incentives that ensure the coming wave really is coming.” 4
But, for India, this realisation has been slow to say the least. Though we initiated a formal discussion on AI in 2018 under “National strategy for Artificial Intelligence”. And we did run a few pilot projects under various schemes to understand the uses of AI in Indian context. Such as, AI for cancer detection and crop yield prediction. First meaningful step in the right direction came with IndiaAI mission with a budget of ₹10,372 crore (about 1.25 billion USD) over the next five years came in 2024 and a formal announcement for a corporate partnership came in April 2025 with Sarvam AI.
The question is, how will India’s investment on AI stack up to countries that are spending 100 billion+ every year on AI related research?
I don’t know to be honest, we will see—This point warrants another whole article.
So, the question is why didn’t we do it in 2017 or 2018 when China was doing it? If you recall, we were busy with demonetisation in 2016-17 and then in 2017-18 we were busy with implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST).
Manufacturing
When the whole world (at that time it was just the US) was using barrels to transport oil on trains/ships/carriages, imagine Rockefeller using pipes to transport oil for the first time.
This is how it’ll feel to incorporate AI related technologies in manufacturing process. Businesses that can incorporate AI systems to enhance the smoothness of their operations will definitely fair better than those who can’t or aren’t ready for it. And believe me, there are many businesses that are too lazy to see this change as threatening until it’s too late.
Services Sector
Services sector’s contribution to India’s GDP is substantial at over 50 percent and the sector’s Gross Value Added totals at over 55 percent.
When we look at this sector, the growth was somewhat unbridled as there was no challenged to India’s educated but cheap manpower. India’s services sector grew at around 6 percent in the last decade and has been one of the biggest employers in the country. Imagine graduates going to TCS, Infosys at 3.5 Lakh annual salary, working tirelessly to contribute an abysmal percentage in the corporation’s balance sheet.
This “dream” came crashing down in November 2022 when ChatGPT came into existence. For the first time in service sector’s history there was someone more ‘educated’-available at a relatively cheaper cost who can do work of multiple employees.
Then came the reckoning where companies such as TCS, Infosys started freezing the hiring and salary increases. We can expect to see this continue, as AI systems become more and more advanced and the latest and greatest ‘chip’ increases their productivity to previously unknown levels, world’s need for India’s “unbridled” services sector will decrease.
I’ll just slide this in here: I think, doing this kinda job is better than preparing for competitive exams (CE). CEs has destroyed a lot of the economic potential of this country except for the coaching institutes and the teachers teaching in them. And as Taleb says, “Anything that smacks of competition, destroys knowledge”.
Biotechnology and Pharmaceuticals
In the Coming Wave5, Michael Bhaskar and Mustafa Suleyman have explained in great detail by helping us understand what lies ahead. Bill Gates while reviewing the book writes, “But what sets his book apart from others is Mustafa’s insight that AI is only one part of an unprecedented convergence of scientific breakthroughs. Gene editing, DNA synthesis, and other advances in biotechnology are racing forward in parallel. As the title suggests, these changes are building like a wave far out at sea—invisible to many but gathering force. Each would be game-changing on its own; together, they’re poised to reshape every aspect of society.”
In the book, Mustafa explains various uses of the technology from the wave that has the potential to change how biotechnology and Pharma research is done. AI can now simulate how molecules interact, predict target binding, and optimise lead compound. It allows for repurposing old drugs, designing new drugs from scratch and predicting side effects or toxicity early.
CRISPR and next-gen Gene Editing such as base editing, prime editing, and epigenetic reprogramming is becoming safer and more precise. It allows for better real-world applications in sickle cell disease such as CRISPR Therapeutics, Cancer immunotherapy and among others in correcting hereditary blindness, muscular dystrophy.
Post-COVID, the use of mRNA vaccines is being extended to Cancer vaccines, Autoimmune diseases and in diseases such as Influenza, HIV and even heart disease.
The use of AI related technologies also disrupts the traditional R&D models. The traditional models that spans 10-15 years is being challenged by things like, AI-driven parallel experimentation, Virtual clinical trials, and access to open-source biological databases.
There are numerous other implications of AI and related technologies on these two sectors, the need is to invest in these things so that we are not caught by surprise when the need is eminent. Imagine the urgency during the pandemic.
Surprisingly, India may be exceptionally well-poised to extract maximum benefit from this aspect of what is about to happen in the field. We have some of the most innovative biotechnology and Pharma companies. But, where we are slowpoke is the original research in the field.
The Indian Pharma and biotechnology companies in India need to move from generic drugs to generative science. From cost advantage to innovation advantage and from serving global markets to shaping them. AI makes all this easy the only limiting factor is the will of the actors involved be it, the government that needs to come-up with better policies, the companies that need to invest more and more in AI systems and the educations institutions that need to teach what will be relevant for the future not the past.
Instances of Countries’ Pragmatism
Countries at various points in their histories, prioritised economic and social development over strict adherence to political ideologies. These phenomenon are typically seen in countries where there is a dire need to change the ‘norm’ or when the leaders envision path that is substantially different from past.
India is home to most of the world’s youngest population but, it might not stay the same in 2050s and 60s as India’s population grows older. So, factually speaking, we have about 20-30 years to utilise the demographic dividend because, after that point India’s population will start getting older, meaning, the population aged 65 and beyond will be more than people aged 16-65. In some parts of the country, the population has already started too decline6.
China post Mao’s ideological rule under Deng Xiaoping made significant changes to the economic structure of the country and famously said, “It doesn’t matter whether a cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice.” China, a deeply communist country went from communism to “socialist market economy” with focus on manufacturing.
India, in 1991 when we went through Liberalisation, Privatisation and Globalisation (LPG) reforms we did abandon many of the socialist policies and went towards free-market economy.
Vietnam (Dai-Moi reforms), like China remained politically communist but, embraced capitalism to rebuild the war-torn economy.
There are many other examples were countries have had to change their ideals at one point to be able to the witness the kind of development we are seeing right now. Examples—Saudi Arabia post World War II open-end up its economy despite objections from the fundamentalists and today, it is one the fastest growing economy in the Middle-East. Japan’s opening up post Meiji Restoration in 1868 is another example; it allowed Japan to become a worthy competitor to western nations especially post First World War. This is the reason why Japan was able to face the United States in the way it did during the Second World War.
What we as a country need to understand?
Most innovations move in an unpredictable pattern but, throughout history the human nature has rarely changed this also means, the nature of nation states rarely change: “Great power competition. Technological rivalry is a geopolitical reality. Indeed it always has been. Nations feel the existential need to keep up with their peers. Innovation is power. Second comes a global research ecosystem with its ingrained rituals rewarding open publications, curiosity, and the pursuit of new ideas at all costs. Then come the immense financial gains from technology and the urgent need to tackle out global security challenges. And the final driver is perhaps the most human of all: ego.”7
We can’t be sitting and relaxing thinking someone is definitely doing something, the need is to manufacture urgency, innovate, take risks, and forget for few years that there is existence of government jobs because they are antique feature of coloniality left behind by the British.
The need of the hour is for every Indian to take risks that are necessary for prevailing India as a strong independent nation. We need to choose and ask leaders to have their skin in the game. We can’t be in 2050 and reminiscing, ‘If we had done this or that differently, things would have been different’, or as Hades said, “What more can punish a man than to sit and groan as he contemplates what might have been”8. We can’t be 2050 and find that leader of that time are saying that we are in this mess because the leaders of 2020-30 didn’t do enough to propel Indian research in something that was crucial for survival of India as a country.
Another example where being obsessive about governance helps is The Swiss. Their political system is neither “left” or “right,” but governance based.
Dishonest politicians cheat people of their dream, their future—we need politicians as well as voters who have their soul in the game and interest of the country should triumph over any and all self-interest.
The need today is to be pragmatic about where to invest, what to ‘preach’ to the public and what to do with the young population we have. We can either be ideological or pragmatic. I think, India needs pragmatism to see itself as a developed nation and as Charlie Munger said, ‘hardcore ideology turns your brain into cabbage’ especially if you’re playing with it at a young age.
Beyond a point it doesn’t even matter who rules a state or at the centre. The need is to have uniform, targeted policies that focuses on delivering what is best for the country despite the ideological differences . It is not just a necessity but, a promise that we have made to the future generations.
I’ll end with this quote from “Skin in the Game” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb:
“I am, at the fed level, libertarian;
at the state level, Republican;
at the local lever, Democrat;
And at the family and friends level, a socialist.”
Considering Maharashtra as part of south India here, two reasons: Maharashtra is going through an identity crisis— it’s in the middle with characteristics of north and south (asked my Marathi professor and he agrees). And Maharashtra’s politics is heavily dependent on language.
As was the case during covid which forced the manufacturers in different parts of the country to fly out workers from Bihar and UP to resume production post lockdowns in 2020.
Bihar:
Bihar govt. cancels contracts worth Rs 826 crore.
Delay in smart city projects.
Sitamarhi-Jaynagar train line.
North-East:
Work on connecting all the capitals in northeast have been delayed.
Subansiri Lower Dam, construction began in 2007 but, completed in 2025.
The Coming Wave; Mustafa Suleyman, page 119.
I will suggest the book to you all. Do read it.
In Kerala districts such as Pathanamthitta and rural areas of Tamil Nadu and further declines are expected in states like, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab (though, in Punjab’s case one of the reason in migration to foreign countries)
The Coming Wave; Mustafa Suleyman, page 119.
Titan; Ron Chernow, page 263.